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AFRICA
August 30, 2023 By Octavian News

US State Dept. Starts Building New Embassy in Kinshasa, DRC

As a demonstration of the enduring commitment to strengthening the relationship between the United States and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), U.S. Ambassador to the DRC Lucy Tamlyn, with representatives from the U.S. Mission to the DRC, the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Overseas Buildings Operations (OBO), and Congolese officials, celebrated the groundbreaking of the new U.S. Embassy in Kinshasa on August 29.

The embassy will be a symbol of our shared commitment to advancing democratic values, sustainable economic growth, and global cooperation.

The project is expected to infuse $170 million into the local economy and provide employment opportunities for more than 1,600 Congolese nationals. Since April 2023, the United States has invested $1.4 million in the local economy to advance this project and expects to procure cement, concrete aggregates, soils and fill materials, and landscaping materials locally. Congolese construction workers will also benefit from skills acquired as part of the project and related safety training.

The embassy design draws inspiration from the diverse environmental mosaic of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The Department is committed to implementing rigorous energy-saving and sustainability strategies to minimize the environmental impact of construction, optimize building performance, and enhance sustainability and resilience.

SHoP Architects of New York, New York, is the design architect, and B.L. Harbert International of Birmingham, Alabama, is the design-build contractor, with Page of Washington, D.C., as the architect of record.

Since the start of the Department’s Capital Security Construction Program in 1999, OBO has completed 177 new diplomatic facilities, and currently has more than 50 active projects in design or under construction worldwide.

OBO provides safe, secure, functional, and resilient facilities that represent the U.S. government to host nations and that support U.S. diplomats in advancing U.S. foreign policy objectives abroad.

Source: Mirage News

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AFRICAMINING
August 25, 2023 By Octavian News

Washington sanctions six Rwandans, Congolese over conflict in Eastern DRC

The US is imposing sanctions on six individuals believed to have helped fuel the conflict in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The six individuals are Rwandans and Congolese rebels, or members of their respective defence forces, in what could signal the cross-border complexity of the conflict.

And according to the US Treasury, each of these individuals has contributed to the instability in the eastern part of the country as DRC struggles to end decades of armed conflict.

They include Apollinaire Hakizimana, a Rwandan national playing his violence in the FDLR rebel group as a ‘defence commissioner.’ He is sanctioned alongside Sebastian Uwimbabazi, also from Rwanda but now in charge of FDLR’s intelligence. Also sanctioned in the group is Ruvugayimikore Protogene, fighting for Maccabe group affiliated to FDLR. He is also from Rwanda.

The US State Department said the individuals had been involved in “numerous cases, committing human rights violations, including sexual violence and violence against children.”

The sanctions also target M23 rebel group. Bernard Byamungu, a Congolese national and deputy commander of operations and intelligence was sanctioned.

The sanctions were also slapped on members of the armed forces in both countries.

Col. Salomon Tokolonga, a Congolese national and commander of the Congolese army (FARDC)’s 3411th regiment was sanctioned for leading armed groups to coalesce against the M23, continuing the conflict.

The US Treasury says he “entered Congolese territory and provided support to the M23, which has long-term connections with the Rwandan government.”

FDLR are an ethnic Hutu rebel group believed to be remnants of those who perpetrated the Genocide against the Tutsi in 1994 in Rwanda. They are seen as public enemy number one in Rwanda and Kigali accuses Kinshasa of supporting the group.

On the other hand, the M23 are composed of Tutsi fighters seen in Kinshasa as being supported by Kigali. It is one of the strongest and more organised rebel groups fighting inside the DRC.

Both sides have denied charges of fomenting instability.

The sanctions announced on Thursday means the US is targeting both sides. The sanctions include the freezing of assets held in the United States by the targeted individuals and a ban on any American citizen or entity doing business with either of them. The ban also covers any material support, in the form of food, goods or services, to these individuals.

In the east of the DRC, hundreds of armed groups have made life hell for civilians, who have fallen prey to barbarism. In the troubled eastern part of the DRC, armed conflict has for a long time fuelled cases of abuse and sexual violence. This violence has increased in intensity. According to a report on the Democratic Republic of Congo by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, “between 2021 and 2022, gender-based violence increased by 23 percent nationally and by 73 percent in the province of North Kivu alone, and this trend is set to continue in 2023.”

“These violations and abuses are linked to the proliferation of armed elements in areas hosting displaced people, and to the frequent failure to respect the civilian and humanitarian nature of refugee and displaced person camps. The number of acts of sexual violence committed against children more than doubled between 2021 and 2022″.

The United Nations Children’s Fund (Unicef) and its partners say they helped about 8,100 survivors of gender-based violence at the national level in 2022, compared with 3,500 in 2021, according to the report on the situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The United States says it is committed to advancing efforts to resolve the crisis and to addressing human rights violations and the dire humanitarian situation.

The sanctions against the six individuals come almost a week after the United States sanctioned Congolese officials for corruption, poaching and illegal trafficking of wildlife in North Kivu.

Cosma Wilungula, former director-general of the Congolese Institute for Nature Conservation (ICCN); Léonard Muamba Kanda, former head of department of the DRC’s management body for the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) and director of ICCN; and Augustin Ngumbi Amuri, director-coordinator of the DRC’s CITES management body and legal adviser to ICCN have been banned from travelling to the United States. 

The US State Department said that these officials, “responsible for wildlife protection, abused their public office by trafficking chimpanzees, gorillas, okapis and other protected wildlife from the DRC, primarily to the People’s Republic of China, using falsified permits in exchange for bribes.”

Source: Nation Africa

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AFRICA
August 24, 2023 By Octavian News

The Last Days of Wagner’s Prigozhin

On the run, the paramilitary chief crisscrossed his global business empire, desperate to show he was still in control; ‘I need more gold’

“For years, Prigozhin had been increasingly living on the run, changing between wigs to impersonate bearded Arab military officers while refueling his jet in the dwindling number of airports that would grant him permission to land.”

New York Times: “Mr. Prigozhin may have been brutally effective, throwing tens of thousands of his fighters into the maw of the battle for Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, tying up Ukrainian forces in the process and hobbling Kyiv’s ability to stage a counteroffensive. His internet ‘troll farm’ helped the Kremlin interfere in the 2016 American presidential election, while his mercenary empire helped Russia exert influence across Africa and the Middle East.”

“But with his June rebellion, Mr. Prigozhin threatened something even more sensitive: Mr. Putin’s own hold on power. After the crash of Mr. Prigozhin’s plane on Wednesday, the Kremlin appears to be sending the message that no degree of effectiveness and achievement can protect someone from punishment for violating Mr. Putin’s loyalty.”

Source: The Wall Street Journal

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GOLDMARKETS
August 23, 2023 By Octavian News

There’s a new bullish case to go long gold – Longview Economics

The current run of record central bank purchases has helped support the price of the precious metal, but there’s an emerging new case as to why investors should be long gold, according to Chris Watling, Chief Market Strategist at Longview Economics.

“[A]s we outlined in our recent analysis of central bank/official buying of gold, there’s no clear correlation between the level/growth of their purchases and the direction of the gold price,” Watling said in the company’s latest Commodity Fundamentals Report. “Indeed, apart from the past 18 months since the war, the gold price has been highly correlated with our 3 factor macro driven gold model,” which focuses on TIPS, interest rate expectations, and the performance of the U.S. dollar.

Watling said the key question is why this relationship has broken down over the last year and a half.

“Some argue that it reflects significant buying by central banks,” he said. “Others argue that it’s the TIPS yield itself which has been distorted (not the gold price), perhaps because of heavy selling of USTs by the Chinese in order to slow the RMB’s weakness […] Either way, the case is building for gold to resume its rally.”

First, Watling points out that gold is once again oversold and has returned to its 200-day moving average support level of around $1895.

“Given it’s also now oversold (see medium term technical market timing model – fig 4 below), and given our expectations about the shift in rate expectations and TIPS yields […] gold is once again an attractive LONG proposition,” he said.

Watling said that from a fundamentals perspective, gold continues to be driven primarily by rate expectations, real TIPS yields, and the dollar. “Reflecting our view that inflation has primarily been driven by monetary factors,” meaning too much money chasing too few goods, “we continue to expect US inflation to fall rapidly, with deflation a possible and growing risk,” he said. “If correct and if our view on recession is also correct, then US rate expectations (& TIPS yields) should move notably lower.”

On the other hand, Watling points out that the outlook for the dollar is less favorable for gold. “It’s worth bearing in mind, though, that the possibility of interventions in both the RMB & YEN is growing with both currencies at/around levels of prior intervention,” he said. “Added to which, if 2 out of 3 key macro factors are supportive of the gold price, that would be a significant improvement over recent months and likely enough to drive the gold price higher.”

Watling cautioned that there are still risks to his bullish gold scenario, including “a 2008 style credit crunch” driven by the Fed’s dramatic tightening, but pointed to the March banking crisis as proof that the central bank was ready and willing to flood the system with liquidity to prevent this. “Hence it’s a low risk event (for LONG gold positions),” he said. “Other risks include dollar strength – although it’s noteworthy that gold rallied in 2001 (during that recession) despite bouts of dollar strength.”

Spot gold continues to hold its morning gains at the time of writing, last traded at $1915.44, up 0.95% on the session.

Source: Kitco

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AFRICADUBAIGOLDMARKETS
August 22, 2023 By Octavian News

BRICS Summit Aims to Challenge US Dollar with Potential Boost to Gold, Silver

The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) summit in Johannesburg could have far-reaching ramifications for the world of finance, specifically for precious metals and the US dollar. As the bloc contemplates expansion and expresses discontent over the dominance of the US dollar in global trade, investors worldwide should be attentive to these seismic shifts in economic power dynamics.

Historically, in periods of political and economic instability, gold and silver have been considered safe-haven assets. As BRICS nations push for a greater role in shaping the global financial landscape and challenge Western supremacy, uncertainties could cause a surge in demand for these precious metals. Additionally, the inclusion of Saudi Arabia, the world’s second-largest oil producer, could provide a further boost. If the bloc promotes trading oil in currencies other than the dollar or even in gold, it could drive up the prices of these metals.

The US dollar’s preeminence in global transactions is under scrutiny. As highlighted in the summit, there’s a growing consensus among BRICS nations to conduct trade in local currencies. While the immediate dethroning of the dollar seems unlikely, a gradual move towards a multipolar financial world, where several currencies co-exist in global trade, is plausible.

Cobus van Staden’s, an analyst at the China Global South Project, analogy of “a lot of paper cuts” perfectly encapsulates the situation. BRICS may not deliver a knockout punch to the dollar, but a series of smaller actions could erode its dominance. These “paper cuts” may include bilateral trade agreements in local currencies, establishment of alternative payment systems, or even gold-backed financial instruments.

An erosion of confidence in the US dollar could trigger a bull market for precious metals. As nations seek to diversify away from dollar-centric systems, they might increase their gold and silver reserves. A multipolar currency world, where local currencies gain prominence, would likely have fluctuating exchange rates. This volatility could further push central banks and investors towards the stability offered by gold.

The US and its allies are closely watching the geopolitical aspirations of BRICS, especially the inclusion of nations like Saudi Arabia. As the bloc grows and its influence expands, it might create a counterweight to Western financial institutions. While the geopolitical repercussions are vast, from a financial perspective, it introduces a new set of players determining global precious metal demand and currency flows.

In conclusion, while the BRICS bloc grapples with internal differences, their united front against the dollar’s dominance signals a transformative phase in global finance. Precious metal investors and dollar watchers alike should keep a keen eye on the bloc’s decisions, as they have the potential to reshape the world’s economic landscape.

Source: FX Empire

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GOLDMARKETS
August 22, 2023 By Octavian News

Investors say they’ll stick with gold as Fed cycle nears end

Gold isn’t losing its allure, according to a dozen money managers who all told Bloomberg News they expect to maintain or raise their exposure to the precious metal in the coming 12 months.

Bullion has stumbled in recent weeks in the face of multiple headwinds from surging real yields to a stronger U.S. dollar and the prospect of U.S. rates staying higher for longer. The survey of investors – from sovereign wealth managers to hedge funds – offered some modest optimism for price prospects into 2024.

None of the respondents said they would cut their exposure to gold in the immediate 12 months, and five of them said they expected to boost their allocations. More than two-thirds of them see prices rising, and five expect a clear all-time high. The poll was conducted between Aug. 10 and Aug. 22.

There’s still obvious uncertainty around when the Federal Reserve will end the bank’s tightening cycle, which would be an important positive for noninterest-bearing gold. Global central banks continue to grapple with stubborn inflation, and the U.S. labor market has remained surprisingly resilient in the face of aggressive monetary tightening.

While there are some signs that investors are bracing for rates to stay higher for longer, the swaps market is still pricing in no more rate hikes, and a shift to policy easing next year.

“We do anticipate there’s pent-up gold demand from investors waiting for the Fed to finish,” said Darwei Kung, head of commodities and portfolio manager at DWS Group. “That’s a positive setup from our perspective.” He sees gold reaching a record $2,250 an ounce in the period.

Bullion is currently trading near $1,900 an ounce, down about 8% from this year’s peak. It reached a record in August 2020 at about $2,075, amid global economic turmoil triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic.

To be sure, economists are getting more confident that the U.S. economy can glide to a soft landing, in a marked shift from widely-held views earlier this year that the economy would experience a sharp downturn.

A separate survey also showed expectations for higher gold prices. Gold will trade at $2,021 per ounce 12 months from now, according to the median of 602 responses to Bloomberg’s Markets Live Pulse online survey of global readers conducted from Aug. 14 to 18.

The continued appetite for gold points to lingering worries about geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties – for example, simmering tensions between the U.S. and China, war in Ukraine, or what’s next for China’s property crisis. Other positive factors for gold include continued purchases by global central banks and relatively strong retail demand in emerging markets.

Meanwhile, a breakdown in the correlation between equities and bonds – a cornerstone of the popular 60/40 investment strategy – is also helping to make the case for the metal due to its ability to diversify portfolios, according to the World Gold Council.

“People are looking for things that do move differently and gold does that,” the council’s head of institutional investor relationships for APAC ex-China, Jaspar Crawley, said at a panel in Sydney on Tuesday. “Diversification has now become a real thing.”

Still, in the near term, gold-watchers have plenty of reasons to be gloomy about the metal’s prospects. For the next clues on interest rates, investors will be paying attention to commentary from this week’s Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak on Friday.

Spot gold gained 0.3% to $1,902.52 an ounce as of 11:15 a.m. in London.

Source: Bloomberg

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AFRICALITHIUMMARKETS
August 21, 2023 By Octavian News

What a U.S.-DRC-Zambia Electric Vehicle Batteries Deal Reveals About the New U.S. Approach Toward Africa

The U.S.-DRC-Zambia memorandum of understanding demonstrates how the United States aims to counter China and bolster its clean energy supply chains by deepening ties with African nations. Yet how distinct is the U.S. approach from the Chinese approach to such deals?

In December 2022, at a sideline event during the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit in Washington, the United States signed a trilateral memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Zambia for the development of an integrated value chain for the production of electric vehicles (EV) batteries. This MOU aims to develop a complete value chain around EV batteries in the DRC and Zambia—from the extraction of minerals to the assembly line. It also advances U.S. government objectives to secure a value chain for the strategic minerals necessary for the clean technologies that will drive the country’s low-carbon transition. Described by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken as “a truly important initiative for the future,” the MOU reveals much about the Joe Biden administration’s new approach toward the African continent, an approach it characterizes as “strengthening partnerships to meet shared priorities.”

The trilateral MOU comes at a time when U.S.-Africa relations are at a turning point within the context of important geopolitical shifts, including the rise of China as a major economic and political actor. In unpacking the MOU, this article examines the wider geopolitical context of the signing, compares the U.S. approach with the Chinese approach to such deals, and questions how the DRC and Zambia can exercise agency in the MOU’s execution.

The International Energy Agency estimates that manufacturers of clean energy technologies will need forty times more lithium, twenty-five times more graphite, and about twenty times more nickel and cobalt in 2040 than in 2020. Due to this global shortage of critical minerals, Africa—which is home to around 30 percent of the world’s mineral reserves—has become a site of great power competition. The DRC and Zambia, in particular, are among the world’s leading producers of certain critical minerals. The DRC produces close to 70 percent of the world’s cobalt, which is essential for the production of EV batteries (see figure 1). Meanwhile, Zambia is Africa’s second-largest producer of copper, which is used in electrical equipment such as wiring and motors (see figure 2).

In the race involving the United States, China, and European countries, among others, to secure access to the minerals essential to the clean energy transition, China is far ahead in building supply chains for cobalt, rare earth minerals, lithium, and several other essential metals and minerals. China has developed a large presence in minerals supply chains by refining most of the world’s cobalt, copper, lithium, and nickel. Chinese companies have emerged as the major players in the mining sector in the DRC and Zambia, after decades of dominance by Western multinational companies. In the DRC, the Chinese company China Molybdenum controls nearly 80 percent of one of the country’s largest copper and cobalt mines, Tenke Fungurume. Chinese dominance along the entire value chain of strategic minerals worries many in the West, especially in the United States, where the Biden administration is seeking to expand manufacturing and sales of EVs by 2030.

The United States has key vulnerabilities in sourcing critical minerals to meet domestic demand for the transition to a low-carbon economy. The United States is import-reliant (meaning that imports account for more than half of annual consumption) for thirty-one of the thirty-five minerals designated as critical by the U.S. Department of the Interior. Sixteen of those are largely refined in China. Overall, the United States is dependent on China for more than half of its supply of twenty-five minerals, even as some of these minerals are found in abundance in Africa.

The United States is now aiming to address its critical minerals demand by pledging to do mining more responsibly than how China currently does it and how the West has done in the past, by avoiding inflicting harmful impacts on both the environment and local populations. It aims to help transform African economies by leaning into the push for clean energy. The 2023 edition of the annual Mining Indaba, Africa’s largest mining conference, in Cape Town, South Africa, drew the largest and most high-level U.S. delegation ever, including officials from the White House and the Departments of Commerce, Energy, and State. The size and level of this delegation showed the awareness within the U.S. government of the importance of securing access to Africa’s critical minerals. 

More broadly, the U.S.-DRC-Zambia MOU was signed to strengthen already existing cooperation between the DRC and Zambia to develop a cross-border integrated value chain for the production of EV batteries. This MOU is in line with the African Green Minerals strategy put forward by the African Development Bank, whose priorities include the establishment of battery and EV value chains, starting with two- and three-wheeled vehicles and commuter buses.

With the MOU, the United States also aims to help meet the economic and industrial needs of the DRC and Zambia. Yet the MOU constitutes a first-step instrument and political signaling tool. Its successful implementation will depend on specific requirements and input from all three countries.

In unpacking the MOU, three themes emerge that illustrate the broader shifts in U.S. relations with African countries, as well as how the U.S. approach compares with the Chinese approach to such relationships.

The public signature of the MOU, along with other trade and investment deals, at the U.S.-Africa summit in December 2022 is part of the U.S. government’s strategy to make its relations with the continent more tangible and aligned with African aims of getting better outputs from these deals in alignment with their governments’ national priorities. The signing happened at a very different time compared to past decades, when the DRC was considered less reputable and battery minerals were not regarded as critical or strategic. In today’s geopolitical environment, in which China has taken the lead in building out critical minerals supply chains in Africa, the United States aims to both catch up with and counter China.

This public MOU signing seems to be adapted from China’s playbook, especially from Chinese agreements on financing and building hard infrastructure projects in Africa. For example, in 2018, China signed MOUs with thirty-seven African countries and the African Union at a Belt and Road Initiative summit, indicating that efforts to bolster cooperation through summits go very far.

MOUs are both soft-law and soft-power tools that open the door for future negotiations and contracts between foreign entities. Most MOUs are less than ten pages, sometimes only a page or two. (The trilateral MOU in this case is five pages.) Thus, signing a MOU makes sense because it allows for due diligence and sourcing of financing to begin without expending resources in legal and accounting procedures that a full-fledged agreement would require; the transaction costs are lower. MOUs are hence used as first-step instruments for the prenegotiation phase of infrastructure and mining contracts and can serve as a framework and basis for further negotiations.

The U.S.-DRC-Zambia MOU is so far a simple expression of the three countries’ interest in working together. The signing does not guarantee its implementation, which depends on many factors that the U.S. government alone cannot entirely control or anticipate. It is a nonbinding agreement that offers flexibility and avoids the rigidity of a legally binding contract. Moreover, it can be undone.

At the bilateral level, both the United States and China have signed several MOUs with the DRC. The U.S. government has signed three MOUs on mining projects with the country’s Ministry of Mines and the Ministry of Employment, Labour, and Social Security in the last decade. One of the MOUs China signed was for the major Sicomines mining deal project, which included two annexes related to infrastructure and mining parts of the deal, in 2007. While not specifying financial commitments, that MOU gave additional details on the negotiations and led to a cooperation agreement—the final stage of a MOU that leads to detailed formal contracts signed by both countries.

At this stage, the value offered by the U.S.-DRC-Zambia MOU seems more political than actionable and can be considered a push for the U.S. government to have deliverables to point to after the conclusion of the U.S.-Africa summit.

While past bilateral U.S.-DRC MOUs were signed by dedicated ministries and were therefore more specific and less public, the U.S.-DRC-Zambia MOU remains vague. The document does not mention concrete engagements or an action plan, as bilateral MOUs usually do. It specifies neither technological input and transfers nor U.S. financial commitments, saying that “all activities pursued under this MOU are subject to the availability of funds.” It stipulates that it is not intended to be legally binding and does not constitute an obligation.

The MOU is a means to position the United States as a contender not only to China but also to European countries that are courting the DRC and other African countries to secure critical minerals. The broad rhetorical style used at this stage is also a means to signal to the respective constituencies in the United States, the DRC, and Zambia that the three governments are getting important things done.

What is distinct about the U.S.-DRC-Zambia MOU is that it marks the first time that an existing bilateral agreement between two African countries transformed into a trilateral initiative involving three parties. Unlike the Chinese approach that largely centers around bilateral deals in the infrastructure and mining sectors, this MOU includes three parties and evolved out of a bilateral agreement.

China makes greater use of government-to-government and less use of government-private sector MOUs. Chinese official entities also issue MOUs at various levels of the Chinese administration (such as the central or provincial levels), while the United States usually involves both the government and the private sector. Yet, in the trilateral MOU, several questions remain open, including whether U.S. firms—known for their deep risk aversion to Africa—are willing to invest in the initiative and whether funds are available.

The U.S.-DRC-Zambia MOU aims to centralize the production of EV batteries in the DRC and Zambia, despite the current trend of mineral extraction happening in Africa but refinement taking place elsewhere. The follow-up negotiations and execution of the MOU will be greatly informed by the extent to which the two African countries can exercise more agency. The countries’ governments seem more aware of this new geopolitical setting, and the ongoing review and renegotiation of cobalt and copper mining deals between China and the DRC have revealed how the DRC government could increase its agency and play a bigger role in negotiating better mining deals. However, with presidential elections looming (in December 2023 in the DRC), it will be crucial to avoid political interference and conflicts of interests in the negotiation process that may hamper the deals.

Whether the DRC and Zambia can increase their technical capacities will determine their strength in the negotiation process and shape how much they can influence the MOU’s execution. An upgrade of technical capabilities can be done by associating the right expertise both from within their respective cabinets and relevant ministries and external expertise to conduct meaningful cost-benefit analyses to determine the value of the minerals and potential revenues as well as the best investment opportunities.

The MOU’s execution will also be shaped by how the Congolese and Zambian governments  navigate great power rivalry between the United States and China, and to some extent Europe, while prioritizing their populations’ economic and social interests in the long term.

MOUs feature prominently in Africa-China engagement and are usually preferred by both sides to formal agreements, which the United States and European countries lean on more often. Whether bilateral or trilateral, MOUs provide a framework that can be built upon. This is the case for both the U.S. and Chinese versions.

For the U.S.-DRC-Zambia MOU to be effective, the follow-up policy initiatives and negotiation of the agreement should contain concrete measures, have clear benchmarks, and create an oversight mechanism to assure that the objectives are successfully implemented and move beyond political signaling.

Source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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GOLDMARKETS
August 19, 2023 By Octavian News

Gold’s Role in a Changing World Order: Finance Titan Frank Giustra

In a recent in-depth interview, Canadian business magnate Frank Giustra offered critical insights into the future of gold, investment strategies, and the economic landscape. As the founder of Eris Gold, Giustra is well-positioned to speak on these matters, sharing both his professional experience and personal life lessons to provide a comprehensive perspective on financial planning and wealth preservation.

Giustra emphasized the enduring importance of gold, particularly as a hedge against economic downturns and inflation. “To preserve your wealth, own physical gold… and own it and don’t sell it,” he said. This classic financial advice continues to resonate, especially in an era of economic uncertainty.

However, Giustra also distinguished between the role of established, large mining companies and smaller, more aggressive outfits like his own Eris Gold. While larger companies have been conservative, especially post-2011, smaller entities offer an aggressive growth plan for significant value appreciation. Speaking on his vision for Eris Gold, Giustra stated that the company starts with about 10 million ounces of “really good grade gold” and aims to build it into a million-ounce per year producer, thus achieving the status of a senior mining company.

The interview also touched on the topic of risk in investments. Giustra pointed out that while every portfolio should include some element of risk for growth potential, it’s crucial to avoid putting all your eggs in one basket. “I wouldn’t be like the Bitcoiners say you have to put it all into this, and you’re going to be fabulously wealthy. That’s pretty dumb investment advice,” he cautioned.

One of the most compelling aspects of the conversation was when Giustra recounted his family’s experience with hyperinflation in Argentina, where his father lost his wealth. “By the time [my father] got his money sometime in the late 70s, it was worthless,” he revealed. This personal anecdote served as a powerful reminder of the importance of diversifying assets and focusing on wealth preservation, particularly in gold.

Toward the end of the discussion, Giustra showcased a more balanced life philosophy. He spoke of his love for the Mediterranean diet, suggesting that a holistic approach to investment isn’t just about financial returns but also about improving one’s quality of life.

In conclusion, Frank Giustra’s multi-faceted insights into gold, the mining industry, and investment strategies offer a valuable roadmap for anyone seeking to navigate the complex world of financial planning. From his professional experience to the life lessons learned from personal hardships, Giustra’s advice serves as both a guide and a warning, making it clear that in a world filled with uncertainties, the timeless value of gold continues to offer avenues for both wealth preservation and growth.

Watch the interview on YouTube.

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AFRICALITHIUMLOGISTICSTECHNOLOGY
August 16, 2023 By Octavian News

Race to Control Electric-Vehicle Supply Chains Leads to Africa

To bypass China, Western companies are investing in facilities to process battery metals in countries such as Tanzania, Mauritius and South Africa.

Pressure to create supply chains for electric-vehicle batteries that bypass China is prompting Western miners to do something they have long avoided: process their metals in Africa.

China dominates both the production and processing of critical minerals such as cobalt and lithium that are key to the energy transition. That has led to growing concerns among Western governments, including in Washington, about their dependence on Beijing.

Now, some Western companies and investors are starting to build processing plants in Africa so they can refine the raw materials they mine on the continent locally and export them directly to Europe and the U.S.

The investments show how Western executives have become more willing to swallow the risks associated with many African countries, including poor infrastructure, limited skilled labor and, in some places, a reputation for government corruption. By building processing facilities, companies are also meeting demands from African governments that have long called for more local processing for metals and minerals extracted from their soil.

Western companies are starting to build processing plants in Africa to refine the raw materials they mine on the continent locally and export them directly to Europe and the U.S., because of growing concerns among Western governments about their dependence on Beijing.

BHP Group has invested $100 million in a nickel mine in Tanzania along with Lifezone Metals, with plans to build a processing plant to refine the metal in the country.

Investments in processing facilities in Africa are likely to rise given the expected boom in demand for battery metals.

Vision Blue Resources, a London-based $650 million fund, is investing in a new graphite mine in Madagascar and a related processing facility in nearby Mauritius. It is also backing a cobalt refinery in Zambia that it says will be the world’s third largest and the biggest outside of China.

Despite growing interest from investors, huge challenges remain for companies that want to do business in Africa. For example, Zimbabwe banned the export of raw lithium in December, effectively forcing foreign companies to process it there, and Chinese competitors still have the upper hand. Many Westerners say the opportunity now outweighs the risks of doing business in Africa. ReElement Technologies is building a processing facility in South Africa to refine lithium mined in South Africa to battery grade.

Boris Kamstra, chief operating officer at Premium Nickel Resources Ltd, said people are now looking for non-Chinese sources of battery metals.

Source: The Wall Street Journal

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August 10, 2023 By Octavian News

BRICS’ new gold-backed currency is coming, but first watch this move from Saudi Arabia at the BRICS summit

Even though the timing of the new BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) currency is still a big unknown, it is an inevitable outcome, according to Andy Schectman, President and Owner of Miles Franklin.

“I do believe that the BRICS will issue a common settlement currency, and it will be backed by something,” Schectman told Michelle Makori, Lead Anchor and Editor-in-Chief at Kitco News. “It’s coming. Whether or not it is a gold-back currency that is introduced in a few weeks or in a few months, or next year, to me, the alliance that is being built represents the majority of the human population.”

In the lead-up to the BRICS summit taking place in Johannesburg on August 22-24, there have been conflicting reports about whether a gold-backed currency was going to be discussed.

According to Anil Sooklal, South Africa’s Ambassador at Large to Asia and BRICS, told reporters last month that a BRICS currency was not on the agenda for the upcoming summit.

“There’s never been talk of a BRICS currency, it’s not on the agenda,” Sooklal said. “What we have said and we continue to deepen is trading in local currencies and settlement in local currencies.”

The more immediate goals for the BRICS bloc are to sidestep the SWIFT system and have the ability to avoid Western sanctions. And there is one event that investors need to closely monitor concerning this – Saudi Arabia’s participation at the upcoming BRICS summit.

The BRICS alliance is expected to expand its membership soon, with over 20 countries formally asking to join the BRICS, including Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and more.

But how the BRICS bloc expands will play a vital role in the global de-dollarization move as member countries continue to push to ditch the greenback and trade using their own currencies.

Schectman sees Saudi Arabia as an essential player in this transition, with eventually 85% of the global population dumping the U.S. dollar.

“There is this cohesion of countries that have joined together to break free from the Western hegemony,” Schectman said. “And I look to Saudi Arabia as the linchpin of all of the issues surrounding the de-dollarization and the dollar hegemony.”

This all hinges on the petrodollar and how other countries need to hold the greenback to buy oil from Saudi Arabia.

Schectman referred to the deal struck between the Nixon administration and Saudi Arabia in the 1970s, which saw Saudis trade oil exclusively in dollars in exchange for security guarantees from the U.S. Following this deal, there was also a shift within the OPEC itself to keep oil in dollars.

“That was the deal we struck with Saudi Arabia and, by extension, OPEC, who has for almost 50 years [conducted] about 90% of all the oil sales across the globe in dollars,” Schectman said. “And this has created a synthetic demand for the dollar.”

This has given the greenback its petrodollar status. But the recent moves from Saudi Arabia should be alarming to the world’s reserve currency, Schectman pointed out.

“I see Saudi Arabia as a very important cog in that [de-dollarization] movement because when Saudi Arabia accepts other currencies for oil, the lack of settlement in the dollar will have substantial effects,” he said. “The glue that will make all of this work is indeed having a currency backed by commodities, presumably gold, using distributed ledger technology or blockchain.”

This whole move against the dollar also goes far being the BRICS bloc, Schectman added. If all the new alliances come together, it would represent 85% of the human population. “If you put together the Belt Road Initiative, the BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and the Eurasian Economic Union … it is a very big deal,” he noted.

Another recent development was Saudi Arabia approving the decision to join the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a dialogue partner. The SCO is a political, security and trade alliance created in 2001 to counter Western influence. Its members include China, Russia, India, Pakistan, and four central Asian countries.

“This is a very big deal. The Shanghai cooperation organization is the largest regional military and financial organization in the world. It represents about 60% of the Eurasian landmass and 40% of the global GDP,” Schectman said. “We can see how they are pushing away from the Western influence and getting very close with some powerful entities.”

The de-dollarization trend has not only been accelerating, but it is also irreversible at this stage, we are at a point of no return – “past the Rubicon”, according to President and Owner of Miles Franklin. “When you see all of this settlement outside the dollar, that’s significant. It creates less demand for the dollar and an environment where the dollar has to fall, and interest rates have to rise to compensate.”

Schectman sees 85% of the global population dumping the greenback in due time. “It’s like a game of Jenga. You keep pulling out these pieces of the dollar hegemony one by one. At what point does it tumble? It’s not going to happen overnight, but you can see the acceleration. So little by little, and then all at once.”

Source: Kitco

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